Urban Sustainability
mehrab mehrabi; Majid Ansari; MOHSEN RAFIEAN
Abstract
Highlights
The foresight is very important in the preservation of the valuable heritage of a city and its transfer to the next generation.
The connection of the TOPSIS method and the fuzzy model is a realistic composition, which analyzes complex issues and relationships correctly and simply at the ...
Read More
Highlights
The foresight is very important in the preservation of the valuable heritage of a city and its transfer to the next generation.
The connection of the TOPSIS method and the fuzzy model is a realistic composition, which analyzes complex issues and relationships correctly and simply at the same time.
Scenarios and scenario planning make up an essential part of the future research process.
The world heritage of the city of Yazd, Iran is a unique testimony of a cultural tradition or a living or lost civilization of human-environment interaction.
Up-to-date tourism services, development of identity-oriented employment, and balance in the migration process are very important in the sustainable development of the world heritage area.
Introduction
Various issues have threatened the stability of cities. The application of the concept of sustainable development in the modern urban environment can be very effective in the solution of these problems. In the meantime, the study of the sustainability of cities with cultural and historical heritage such as Yazd is different from that of other cities. The presence of precious historical and cultural heritage has made this city unique, and it has also made its studies and management more sensitive. Therefore, given that the Yazd contains a valuable heritage that has been inherited from generation to generation and based on the perspective of sustainable development, it is necessary for the present generation to make efforts to preserve and transfer it to the next generation. Thus, the ever-increasing changes in the historical areas of the city make it necessary to be aware of the future of this valuable area and overcome its future transformations based on this knowledge. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to identify the driving forces affecting the process of sustainable development and to provide the future scenarios of the world-heritage area of Yazd with an emphasis on sustainable development.
Theoretical Framework
Urban planning and future studies are both primarily future-oriented. They both deal with ambiguous, multifaceted, controversial issues with uncertain outcomes. Their common goal is to provide a better future. The responsibility of future researchers is to help people express beautiful dreams, and the responsibility of planners is to help make these dreams come true. The previous studies and observations of the process of formation and construction of the world heritage of Yazd and the stability of this valuable treasure from the past up to now indicate the conscious connection made by the people of that age between efficient and futuristic urban planning. By learning from our predecessors, developing plans and future research techniques, and understanding the importance of connecting these two fields, we must preserve this lasting heritage by understanding future changes and planning intelligently.
Methodology
The current research is practical in terms of purpose and a document survey in terms of data collection. An initial study of the relevant documents helped to identify the drivers of the process of sustainable development of the world-heritage site of Yazd. Then, the key drivers were identified and ranked based on experts’ opinions using the fuzzy method of TOPSIS. Finally, optimistic, intermediate, and critical scenarios were provided for the studied area based on the different states of the engines in the Scenario Wizard software.
Results and Discussion
The findings of the research demonstrate that of the 24 variables affecting the process of sustainable development of the historical area of Yazd, 7 drivers play leading roles in the future state of the area population, participation of residents, migration, competitiveness, tourism services, protection of the area (physical-functional), and employment. Moreover, the findings indicate the prominent role of social indicators compared to others in the process of sustainable development of this area, which shows the importance of these indicators in regard to preservation and sustainable development. In the interpretation of the thematic layering of the seven identified drivers, the three drivers of population, migration, and employment are defined as the components of the concept of sustainable development of the historical area. This means that changes made in these drivers considerably affect the area. Eight powerful scenarios were developed based on the results of the analysis matrix of the mutual effects of the assumptions made in the three optimistic, intermediate, and critical situations for each of the identified drivers. One ideal scenario, two optimistic scenarios, three pessimistic scenarios, and two critical scenarios were evaluated.
Conclusion
In the analysis of the scenarios, it can be pointed out that the existing historical conditions of Yazd are far from the ideal scenario, and the city is heading towards a critical scenario, facing ups and downs in order to maintain the stability of operation. Let us assume the planning scene as a spectrum from critical conditions to full optimality and consider the former as the longest distance from the ideals and the latter as the shortest. It should be stated that the historical context is currently not in the right direction, and there are not proper conditions. Therefore, in order to become closer to the ideal scenario based on the identified drivers, it is suggested that service conditions should be considered based on the needs of today’s residents and fair distribution in line with the increase in the population along with the preservation of the original and native population. Moreover, priority should be given to the enhancement and revitalization of the area with an emphasis on tradition, culture, and the use of local materials. In the meantime, particular attention should be paid to the prosperity and diversity of compatible jobs due to the important role of economic issues in development.
Urban Planning
Mozhgan Sabet Teimouri; sajedeh baghban khiabani; ali alizadeh Zoeram
Abstract
HighlightsCulture and tradition have been the most important effect on development of tourism Destruction of agricultural lands threatens the sustainable development of tourism Destruction of traditional textures threatens the sustainable development of tourism Destruction of agricultural ...
Read More
HighlightsCulture and tradition have been the most important effect on development of tourism Destruction of agricultural lands threatens the sustainable development of tourism Destruction of traditional textures threatens the sustainable development of tourism Destruction of agricultural lands is one of the negative consequences of tourismIntroductionTourism is a relatively new social activity that has recently emerged as a global phenomenon, and is considered as an important factor in social and cultural changes and development. Today, most experts recognize that the phenomenon of tourism can enrich all areas of human life in terms of speed and aspects of influence as the miracle of the century. Various effects of tourism development are observed in the city of Shandiz, Iran as tourists flood into the city. The development of tourism in Shandiz and its surrounding areas has led to positive physical and functional changes, such as the expansion of health care and accommodation facilities and increase in access to transportation. In general, factors including the desire to divide land and establish complexes as neighborhood settlements and sites equipped for gardening and residence (temporary residences), consistent with the development of tourism in the city, cause the location and construction processes to neglect the natural environment, the requirement for infrastructures and relevant services, and the impact on existing settlements, resulting in widespread intrusion on physical properties and their destruction. Given the positive and negative effects mentioned in regard to Shandiz, this research sought to make an expert analysis of the future trends in the city in order to mitigate or eliminate the negative effects and promote the positive ones based on the model of sustainable tourism development. The study was focused on identification of scenarios for addressing the physical and functional effects of the development of the Shandiz tourism destination and on specification of the optimal scenario in this field.Theoretical FrameworkThe tourism industry can have significant effects as an important form of human activity. It is quite clear how tourism affects the destination area, where tourists interact with the local environment, economy, culture and society. It should be noted that tourism issues are generally multifaceted, and their categorization is not as straightforward as often stated. In other words, the effects of tourism cannot be classified simply as social, environmental, or economic, as they tend to exhibit many interrelated dimensions, and may change over time with the development of destination areas.MethodologyFor achievement of the purpose of the study, descriptive-analytical investigations, documentations, and questionnaires were applied in the framework of the Delphi model and software analyses. After an enumeration of the key driving forces using the Delphi method, the method of future research was used to explain the various conceivable conditions for the future of Shandiz. Therefore, different conceivable states for each of these variables were discussed in expert panels, where the participants presented the pros and cons of each of the proposed scenarios. Then, the experts were asked to judge the effect of each possible situation on others on a qualitative scale from -3 (strongly restricting effect) to +3 (strongly promoting effect) according to the conditions prevailing in the study area. The expert judgments were incorporated into the ScenarioWizard software environment for presentation of system-compatible scenarios, ranging from the most favorable to the most catastrophic on a continuum involving moderate as well as favorable and catastrophic scenarios.Results and DiscussionThe findings of the study forecast three possible scenarios out of 39366 for Shandiz in the 2029 prospects, of which one was evaluated as favorable and two as unfavorable, although the results of similar studies have indicated the importance of land use change in the process of sustainable tourism development in cities. The findings of this study, however, demonstrate that culture and tradition have been the most important determinants of sustainability in the development of tourism in Shandiz. In an analysis of such results, it can be stated that the most effective assumptions here involve an enhancement of the traditional features of the fabric in the favorable scenario and their destruction in the unfavorable scenarios. However, destruction of agricultural lands was identified in this research as a negative consequence of tourism development, unlike in other studies. The findings indicate that moderate construction of buildings of residential use and enhancement of the traditional features of the city will effectively contribute to credibility of the favorable future of Shandiz in 2029. It is therefore suggested that the above factors should be focused on for achievement of a favorable future in the city in the field of tourism. Moreover, it will bring about greater stability in the favorable scenario to change the architectural pattern from traditional to postmodern, whereas the destruction of the traditional fabrics and agricultural lands in the unfavorable scenarios will lead to other destructive effects and threaten the sustainable development of tourism in the city.ConclusionThe findings demonstrate that the destruction of traditional fabrics in the unfavorable scenarios of tourism development in Shandiz exhibits greater stability than the other assumptions. Overall, the optimal scenario for the future of the city is more stable and robust. For establishment of a sustainable space for tourism, therefore, it is suggested that the preservation of the traditional urban space and proper management of land use changes be emphasized. Thus, sustainable development of tourism in Shandiz can be achieved if the favorable scenario proposed in this study is adopted, which emphasizes the enhancement of traditional features in a context consistent with the culture, balanced distribution of constructions with residential, commercial and tourist reception, and accommodation and recreational uses, preservation of agricultural lands and gardens, improvement of the quality of communication services, connection of the new and old fabrics, improvement of architecture in accordance with the local culture and materials, and modification of the architectural pattern from traditional to postmodern.
