نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجو

2 معاون پژوهشی پردیس هنرهای زیبا دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

در برنامه ریزی منطقه ای مسکن ملی و منطقه ای دو رویکرد برنامه ریزی های مرسوم طرح جامع مسکن و برنامه ریزی موضوعی مسکن وجود دارد. در شیوه ی طرح جامع مسکن در سطح استانی و ملی فارغ از مسائل اقتصادی است و صرفا در انتهای فرایند برنامه ریزی به عوامل و شاخص های اقتصادی رجوع می شود که این موضوع، مسئله ی فاصله گرفتن این طرح ها از ابعاد اقتصادی را به وجود آورده است. اما در برنامه ریزی موضوعی مسکن ،مسئله اصلی و اثرگذار موضوعی به عنوان مبنا قرار می گیرد و با توجه به اهمیت بخش اقتصادی ، این بخش به عنوان موضوع مبنایی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای مسکن به شمار می رود. چنانچه گام های آنها عکس یکدیگر می باشند و گام انتهایی طرح های جامع مسکن یعنی سنجش اثرات و جایگاه بخش مسکن در سایر بخش های اقتصادی، به عنوان گام نخستین و مسئله اصلی برنامه ریزی موضوعی مسکن در رویکرد دوم می باشد. در تحلیل روابط جایگاه مسکن بین بخش های اقتصادی ، محاسبه ضریب بسشمار بخش های اقتصادی با استفاده از جداول داده ستانده به عنوان هدف راهبردی اولیه می باشد تا در ادامه فرایند برنامه ریزی مسکن مورد استفاده قرار گیرد. ضریب تکاثر بدست آمده برای بخش مسکن در برنامه ریزی عملیاتی جهت برآورد میزان سرمایه گذاری ، اثربخشی و اثر دهی اقتصادی ، اشتغال تولید شده ، نیاز واردات و حجم صادرات کاربرد خواهد داشت. با جمع آوری اطلاعات و بهره مندی از جدول داده ستانده ملی در سال 1380 بازه زمانی 10 ساله در قلمرو ملی و 30 استان برگزیده شد. در سطح ملی بخش مسکن در سال 1380با ضریب بسشمار 1.25 در رده چهارم بخش های پیشرو اقتصادی و در سال 1390 بخش مسکن با ضریب بسشمار 1.167 رتبه سوم بخش اقتصادی پیشرو در سطح ملی را به خود اختصاص داده است. با استفاده از روشRAS و تخمین نسبی داده ستانده های استانی مشخص گردید در سطح استانی بخش مسکن به عنوان بخش پیش رو اکثر استان ها است و در عمده ی استان ها رتبه ی دوم تا چهارم ، در استان های کهگیلویه و بویراحمد و سیستان و بلوچستان ، بخش مسکن رتبه نخست و در استان های سمنان ، زنجان ، قزوین و مرکزی ، بخش مسکن رتبه های 6 ، 6 ، 8 و9 را در بین بخش های اقتصادی استان خود دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation and analysis of housing sector in national and regional economic sections Case study of: National and provincial plans in years 2001 and 2011

نویسندگان [English]

  • amirhosein abdollahzadeh 1
  • esfandiar zebardast 2

1 student

2 urban and regional planning department univercity of tehran

چکیده [English]

There are two main approaches to housing planning on national or regional scales: first, comprehensive housing plans and, second, subject-specific housing plans. Comprehensive housing plans bear a significant flaw: their lack of economic evaluation, which only comes at the end of the planning process. This makes them quite distant from economic realities of the province or region. However, in subject-specific housing plans, the emphasis is on the most consequential and primal issues and therefore the economic and financial factors are very well reflected. Therefore, these two approaches to planning take opposite directions as the first step in one is the final step in another. One is planning-oriented and the other is implementation-oriented.
In the analysis of housing in national or regional planning sectors, the main method is to calculate an appropriate coefficient in different economic sectors for input-output charts. The calculated coefficient for housing sector can be used in housing planning for estimating investment, economic efficiency, job creation, export and import demand and supply.
After data collection, 30 provinces were selected using input-output charts of 2001 fiscal year to be observed in a period of 10 years. The coefficients for different economic sectors show that water supply, electricity and natural gas are the frontline sectors followed by leisure services (e.g. hotels and restaurants), public services and the construction sector with a coefficient of 1.25. The annual inflation rate was applied in each sector and then the input-output chart of 2011 was produced in which the water, electricity and gas supply were again identified as the leading sectors. Finally, the housing sector with a coefficient of 1.167 was identified as the third on the national level.
The charts were recalculated for each province using the RAS method by applying the sector estimates for each province and calculating the medium consumption, production and added value of each province. The results show that housing and construction sector remains the leading sector in most provinces. The coefficient is in the range of 1.56 to 2.24. In most provinces, this sector has the second to fourth rank. In Kohkilouyeh & Boyer Ahmad and Sistan & Balouchestan though, housing ranks first. Also, in Semnan, Qazvin, Zanjan, and Markazi its rank varies from 6 to 9. 
In analyzing the role of housing in economy using input-output tables and quanti-connectivity method, construction and housing sectors ranked first in the economy sector within the 10-year period. Construction sector was identified as the leading one in provinces. In this sector, three basic indexes in the input-output analysis include intermediate consumption, output and added value. Output rate is 6-8%, intermediate consumption is 4-6% and added value is 3-5% in provinces. These values are very low as compared with their consumption levels. Moreover, in the provinces, housing sector has the highest output to other sectors and the lowest input from other sectors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Housing
  • Regional Planning
  • Input-Output
  • Multiplier

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