Document Type : Research Paper

Abstract

Urban slums have always been a challenge for urban managers in our country. In recent years, some problems such as rapid and continuous changes and emergence of new issues has led to planning and policy in this area to be solved with short-term and temporary measures.  Transformation and change is a normal phenomenon in society and is a continuous and long process. Changes in all fields, past, present and future will be extended. What is needed is the revision of approaches to the management and use of new tools in planning. Foresight as a new approach is in fact the wise and prudent response to the challenges arising from changes and is a process that will lead to sustainable planning . I this study, the foresight approach is used to identify the drivers or effective factors that impact the future status of urban slums in Sanandaj and their effects on each other . In addition, the foresight approach is used to provide strategies, plans and policies to achieve the desired scenarios. The research methodology was based on new methods of foresight study and to  gather the data library method and environmental scanning was used. Cross-impact / structural analysis was used to analyze the data using MICMAC software application. The results show that in the first stage, using environmental scanning, 54 factors in 6 areas were identified to affectthe future status of urban slums of the city. Based on the number of factors, the matrix size was 54 × 54 which was set in 6 different areas. The considered number of repetitions was 2 times and the matrix fill degree was  47/70 percent, indicating an average coefficient which seems to be normalbecause of the scattering of the variables affecting the future status of urban slums in Sanandaj. Amongst a total of 1391 relationships in evaluation of this matrix, 1525 had zero relationshipss, 1276 had one relationship, 102 had two  relationships, and 13 had three relationships. . On the other hand, the matrix achieved 100% desirability and efficiency based on the statistical indicators with 2 times data rotation,  indicating the validity of the questionnaire and its responses. In regards the scattered distribution of variables one can understand that it is due to system instability which shows that most variables are scattered around the diagonal axis and also apart from a few limiting factors that demonstrate a high effectiveness in the system other variables of conditions are similar to each other. Therefore, the five categories of factors (Effective factor, Two-sided factor, Regulation factor, Effectiveness factor, Independent factor) are identifiable. Finally, of the 54 factors mentioned after checking the amount and the degree of effectiveness the of factors in connection to each other and on the future status of settlements with direct and indirect methods, of the following 12 key factors were selected as having the greatest role in the future status of  urban slums in Sanandaj: management style, development of the national economy, immigration, neighborhood-oriented approach, affordable housing policies, quality of space and place, social capital, the price of land and housing, educational permeability, land management, and ownership (security of tenure).

Keywords

• Urban slums
• Foresight
• Sanandaj
• Cross-Impact Analysis
• MICMAC

Main Subjects

• Slum Settlements