Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• amirhosein abdollahzadeh ¹
• esfandiar zebardast ²

¹ student

² urban and regional planning department univercity of tehran

Abstract

There are two main approaches to housing planning on national or regional scales: first, comprehensive housing plans and, second, subject-specific housing plans. Comprehensive housing plans bear a significant flaw: their lack of economic evaluation, which only comes at the end of the planning process. This makes them quite distant from economic realities of the province or region. However, in subject-specific housing plans, the emphasis is on the most consequential and primal issues and therefore the economic and financial factors are very well reflected. Therefore, these two approaches to planning take opposite directions as the first step in one is the final step in another. One is planning-oriented and the other is implementation-oriented.
In the analysis of housing in national or regional planning sectors, the main method is to calculate an appropriate coefficient in different economic sectors for input-output charts. The calculated coefficient for housing sector can be used in housing planning for estimating investment, economic efficiency, job creation, export and import demand and supply.
After data collection, 30 provinces were selected using input-output charts of 2001 fiscal year to be observed in a period of 10 years. The coefficients for different economic sectors show that water supply, electricity and natural gas are the frontline sectors followed by leisure services (e.g. hotels and restaurants), public services and the construction sector with a coefficient of 1.25. The annual inflation rate was applied in each sector and then the input-output chart of 2011 was produced in which the water, electricity and gas supply were again identified as the leading sectors. Finally, the housing sector with a coefficient of 1.167 was identified as the third on the national level.
The charts were recalculated for each province using the RAS method by applying the sector estimates for each province and calculating the medium consumption, production and added value of each province. The results show that housing and construction sector remains the leading sector in most provinces. The coefficient is in the range of 1.56 to 2.24. In most provinces, this sector has the second to fourth rank. In Kohkilouyeh & Boyer Ahmad and Sistan & Balouchestan though, housing ranks first. Also, in Semnan, Qazvin, Zanjan, and Markazi its rank varies from 6 to 9. 
In analyzing the role of housing in economy using input-output tables and quanti-connectivity method, construction and housing sectors ranked first in the economy sector within the 10-year period. Construction sector was identified as the leading one in provinces. In this sector, three basic indexes in the input-output analysis include intermediate consumption, output and added value. Output rate is 6-8%, intermediate consumption is 4-6% and added value is 3-5% in provinces. These values are very low as compared with their consumption levels. Moreover, in the provinces, housing sector has the highest output to other sectors and the lowest input from other sectors.

Keywords

• Housing
• Regional Planning
• Input-Output
• Multiplier

Main Subjects

• Regional Planning