Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Department of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.
2 Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Art University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
Abstract
Modern cities have become increasingly vulnerable to human-induced threats such as warfare, as they have become increasingly reliant on centralized and complex networks for the delivery of infrastructural services. The present study aims at re-interpreting the garden-city model as a traditional and historical pattern of settlement to enhance the city’s resilience against wartime threats. The city of Khansar in Iran has been chosen as a case study. The research is based on a future-oriented paradigm and uses a descriptive-analytical method with structural analysis. Data were collected using a systematic literature review and the Delphi technique, with 15 experts in the fields of urban planning, disaster management and passive defense. Cross-impact analysis and MICMAC software were used to analyze the data and to investigate the relations of 23 variables affecting urban resilience under wartime conditions. The results show that among the research variables, 8 key variables of city scale, spatial dispersion and deconcentration, water resource security, biodiversity and natural infrastructure, ecosystem services of green spaces, public participation, economic diversity and community self-organization are the main driving and two-fold variables of the resilience system of Khansar and maintain a critical position in both direct and indirect analysis. The analysis of three alternative scenarios suggests that Khansar, with its natural and spatial assets (springs and qanats, extensive orchards, small urban scale, and dispersed structure) and social capital (active mosques, vibrant religious ceremonies, and kinship ties in historical neighborhoods), has great potential to be a “model city” for wartime resilience, provided that urban planning and crisis management consider the simultaneous activation of these drivers, especially the strengthening of social capital and the local economy. Otherwise, the continuation of the current trends including the extensive destruction of orchards, contamination of groundwater resources through traditional wastewater disposal and weakening of social interactions in new neighborhoods will lead to increasing dependency on external networks and the collapse of the city’s resilience in future crises. The findings indicate the necessity of preparing integrated plans and operational scenarios based on the identified key drivers, including the quantitative and qualitative protection of water resources, the increase of food self-sufficiency through the development of organic agriculture and local cooperatives, multifunctional use of orchards as green corridors, the empowerment of neighborhoods through the establishment of local crisis management councils, the dual-purpose equipping of mosques as emergency bases, the economic diversification through agro-processing industries and sustainable tourism, to enhance the adaptability of garden-city patterned settlements to complex human-induced threats.
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