نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه تبریز
2 استاد تمام دانشگاه تبریز / ریاست دانشگاه تبریز
چکیده
سکونتگاه‌های فرودست شهری همواره چالشی پایان ناپذیر برای مدیران شهری در کشور ما بوده است. در سال‌های اخیر آشفتگی و تغییرات پرشتاب و مداوم و ظهور مسائل جدید، باعث شده تا برنامه‌ریزی و سیاست‌گذاری‌ها در این حوزه به صورت مقطعی و اندک زمانی بتواند معضلات را التیام ببخشد. آنچه نیاز است تجدیدنظر در رویکردهای کلانِ مدیریتی و به‌کارگیری ابزارهای جدید در برنامه‌ریزی است. آینده‌نگاری به عنوان رویکردی نوین، فرآیندی است که منجر به نتیجه پایدار عمل برنامه‌ریزی می‌شود. در این راستا این پژوهش، با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری به شناسایی مهمترین عوامل مؤثر و بررسی میزان و چگونگی تأثیرگذاری این عوامل بر یکدیگر و بر وضعیت آینده سکونتگاه‌های فرودست شهری سنندج می‌پردازد که در واقع زمینه تدوین سناریوها در مراحل بعدی و همچنین تدوین راهبردها، برنامه‌ریزی و سیاست‌گذاری برای رسیدن به سناریوهای مطلوب را فراهم می‌کند. روش تحقیق براساس روش‌های جدید آینده‌پژوهی، تبیینی و برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از روش اسنادی و پویش‌محیطی استفاده شده است. برای تحلیل داده‌ها از روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل/ ساختاری به وسیله نرم‌افزار MICMAC استفاده شده است. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از این است که در مرحله نخست، با روش پویش محیطی، 54 عامل در شش حوزه، مؤثر بر وضعیت آینده سکونتگاه‌های فرودست شهر شناسایی شدند. آنچه از وضعیت صفحه پراکندگی متغیرها می‌توان فهمید حاکی از ناپایداری سیستم می‌باشد که بیشتر متغیرها در اطراف محور قطری صفحه پراکنده هستند. بنابراین پنج دسته عامل(عوامل تأثیرگذار، عوامل دو وجهی، عوامل تنظیمی، عوامل تأثیرپذیر و عوامل مستقل) قابل شناسایی هستند. درنهایت از میان 54 عامل یاد شده پس از بررسی میزان و چگونگی تأثیرگذاری این عوامل بر یکدیگر و بر وضعیت آینده این سکونتگاه‌ها با روش‌های مستقیم و غیرمستقیم، تعداد 12 عامل کلیدی انتخاب شدند؛ شیوه مدیریت، رشد اقتصاد ملی، مهاجرت، رویکرد محله محوری، سیاست‌های تأمین مسکن در استطاعت، کیفیت فضا و مکان، سرمایه اجتماعی، قیمت زمین و مسکن، سواد و سطح نفوذپذیری آن، مدیریت زمین، مالکیت(امنیت تصرف) که بیشترین نقش را در وضعیت آینده سکونتگاه‌های فرودست شهری سنندج ایفا می‌کنند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Identifying the key factors influencing the future status of urban slums regarding future study approach: the case study of Sanandaj
چکیده [English]
Urban slums have always been a challenge for urban managers in our country. In recent years, some problems such as rapid and continuous changes and emergence of new issues has led to planning and policy in this area to be solved with short-term and temporary measures. Transformation and change is a normal phenomenon in society and is a continuous and long process. Changes in all fields, past, present and future will be extended. What is needed is the revision of approaches to the management and use of new tools in planning. Foresight as a new approach is in fact the wise and prudent response to the challenges arising from changes and is a process that will lead to sustainable planning . I this study, the foresight approach is used to identify the drivers or effective factors that impact the future status of urban slums in Sanandaj and their effects on each other . In addition, the foresight approach is used to provide strategies, plans and policies to achieve the desired scenarios. The research methodology was based on new methods of foresight study and to gather the data library method and environmental scanning was used. Cross-impact / structural analysis was used to analyze the data using MICMAC software application. The results show that in the first stage, using environmental scanning, 54 factors in 6 areas were identified to affectthe future status of urban slums of the city. Based on the number of factors, the matrix size was 54 × 54 which was set in 6 different areas. The considered number of repetitions was 2 times and the matrix fill degree was 47/70 percent, indicating an average coefficient which seems to be normalbecause of the scattering of the variables affecting the future status of urban slums in Sanandaj. Amongst a total of 1391 relationships in evaluation of this matrix, 1525 had zero relationshipss, 1276 had one relationship, 102 had two relationships, and 13 had three relationships. . On the other hand, the matrix achieved 100% desirability and efficiency based on the statistical indicators with 2 times data rotation, indicating the validity of the questionnaire and its responses. In regards the scattered distribution of variables one can understand that it is due to system instability which shows that most variables are scattered around the diagonal axis and also apart from a few limiting factors that demonstrate a high effectiveness in the system other variables of conditions are similar to each other. Therefore, the five categories of factors (Effective factor, Two-sided factor, Regulation factor, Effectiveness factor, Independent factor) are identifiable. Finally, of the 54 factors mentioned after checking the amount and the degree of effectiveness the of factors in connection to each other and on the future status of settlements with direct and indirect methods, of the following 12 key factors were selected as having the greatest role in the future status of urban slums in Sanandaj: management style, development of the national economy, immigration, neighborhood-oriented approach, affordable housing policies, quality of space and place, social capital, the price of land and housing, educational permeability, land management, and ownership (security of tenure).
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Urban slums
- Foresight
- Sanandaj
- Cross-Impact Analysis
- MICMAC
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